When it comes to U.S. Presidential elections you will often hear political analysts refer to bellwethers (a state or county that signals the outcome of an entire election). The state of Ohio is frequently labeled a bellwether state due to the fact that it has voted for the winning presidential candidate 27 out of 29 elections with a leading accuracy rate of 93.10%. Coming in second is New Mexico with an accuracy rate of 92.31% (24 out of 26 elections).
Since becoming a state in 1912, New Mexico has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election except two: in 1976 New Mexico voted for Gerald Ford and in 2000 New Mexico’s five electoral votes went to Al Gore.
This election cycle the predicted winner of New Mexico seems to be fairly agreed upon, regardless of Donald Trump’s claim recently in a visit to Albuquerque that New Mexico is in play. Most political observers expect Hillary Clinton to win in New Mexico, including Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight which as of early Tuesday morning gives Clinton an 82.4% chance of winning. Overall, the surge in Hispanic turnout this election cycle is likely a boost for Hillary, and it could have an impact in down ballot races in Bernalillo and Dona Ana, two counties that have hotly contested races in the fight to control the House of Representatives in January.
Since becoming a state in 1912, New Mexico has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election except two: in 1976 New Mexico voted for Gerald Ford and in 2000 New Mexico’s five electoral votes went to Al Gore.
On the eve of Election Day, the Presidential race has tightened significantly in New Mexico. On Sunday the Albuquerque Journal had Clinton up 5 points, and on Monday ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, published a poll showing Clinton up 2 points. With such a large Hispanic population, one would think Clinton would have an easier time putting Trump away in the Land of Enchantment – of the four “majority-minority” states in the United States, New Mexico is also the state with the highest percentage of Hispanics at 47 percent. Republican Party political strategist Patrick Ruffini notes one reason that might explain why:
Haven’t gotten why New Mexico remains close. Possible that established Latino vote not reacting same way to Trump as more recent immigrants? pic.twitter.com/Qfi5VTG0E7
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 7, 2016
Hispanics that have been here for generations – such as those in Northern New Mexico with a Spanish heritage – or who went through the process of acquiring citizenship do not want to reward or enable those who don’t respect the same process. They see Trump as someone willing to improve border security and enforce existing laws. That might help explain why Clinton’s strong Hispanic support nationwide has not translated to a larger winning margin in New Mexico.
So will New Mexico maintain its track record as a bellwether state? A big indicator is that the demographic makeup of New Mexico now is what the U.S. will look like in the future as minorities continue to grow (somewhere around 66,000 Hispanics turn 18 every month) and the voting population as a whole becomes less white. According to Census Bureau projections, by 2030 the Hispanic share of the country’s population will nearly double to 23 percent from 13 percent. This is a significant part of the reason why strategists believe New Mexico’s status as a bellwether state will continue while Ohio’s is likely to fade. The future demographic makeup of the U.S. will look less like the Rust Belt and more like the Sun Belt. Expect New Mexico to solidify that reputation today and in elections to come.
