“I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively — I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words.” – President Trump, speaking last year on the campaign trail
President Trump began his push to build a “beautiful, southern border wall” between the U.S. and Mexico. The diplomatic row between the U.S. and Mexico is heating up, and the rhetoric threatens to isolate the third largest trade partner of the United States.
The night before the planned meeting between the presidents of the U.S. and Mexico, the Mexican president resisted calls to cancel the meeting and told lawmakers back home he had not committed, at that point still leaving the door open to meet with Trump despite considerable political pressure back home. After Trump tweeted on Thursday that if Mexico was not going to pay for the wall Peña Nieto probably shouldn’t come, he left the Mexican president no choice:
of jobs and companies lost. If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 26, 2017
Esta mañana hemos informado a la Casa Blanca que no asistiré a la reunión de trabajo programada para el próximo martes con el @POTUS.
— Enrique Peña Nieto (@EPN) January 26, 2017
So will President Trump be able to keep his promise to construct a southern border wall?
The thing is, most of the southern border wall has already been built. Since the early 90s, the annual funding for immigration and border security grew from $1.5 billion to $19.5 billion:
Hundreds of miles of metal barriers have gone up. Technologies initially developed for the military have been adapted for border enforcement. A fleet of manned and unmanned aircraft have been deployed to monitor from the air. Thousands of new agents have been hired. The size of the Border Patrol doubled in the 1990s and has more than doubled again since the beginning of the century, from about 4,000 personnel to more than 21,000.
Close to 700 miles of different varieties of a border fence currently exist. Trump’s plan will likely add or reinforce existing fencing, hire more border guards, and equip them with the best surveillance gear available. You only need a few miles of a tall formidable wall to stage the inevitable photo op.
What will be the total cost of the wall and beefed up security? Trump has said the cost will be around $10 to $12 billion, Mitch McConnell estimated the wall will cost between $12 and $15 billion, and a study by the Washington Post estimated the cost to be closer to $25 billion.
Adding even more to the project cost is that the addition of 1,000 miles of border fence would crisscross private land which would have to be purchased – perhaps by legal force (also known as eminent domain).
Seemingly lost in the conversation is the fact that the number of people attempting to get into the U.S. through Mexico has dropped to levels last seen in the 1970s – nearly half the illegal population enters the country legally. That has some to think visa overstays are next on Trump’s illegal immigration crackdown. Maybe Trump will even follow through on his administration’s idea to help Mexico with its southern border with Guatemala.
In the end, Trump’s southern border wall push will build on the legacy of President Clinton and continued by every president since. It will not stop people from crossing illegally: even Trump’s own Secretary of Homeland Security said during his confirmation hearing that a “physical barrier will not do the job.” And the mere prospect of it is disrupting relations with a vital partner whose cooperation is needed to grow the U.S. economy, secure the border, and prevent terrorism. There is no doubt we need to secure our border, but the unnecessary and combative rhetoric used by Trump threatens a significant and mutually beneficial relationship.
