Albuquerque – If you’re in the Duke City right now the hotair balloons are above and traffic is hell below. There’s already piñon scented smoke rising through our kivas and fireplaces which means baseball playoffs are near (Go Dodgers). Campaign signs and neighborhood canvassers have been sighted while your land line or cell is already being barraged by pushy pollsters or nervous volunteer, phonebankers from various candidates and causes. Only 36 more days until Election Day.
Operatives across party lines are cautious about their respective presidential candidates chances in New Mexico. The general optics are that Hillary Clinton overconfidently presumes a New Mexico victory while Donald Trump has a small operational footprint here, he is probably concentrating more resources on other conventional battleground states. Voters generally are not enthused about the Democratic and Republican nominees, this reality has made New Mexico even more fertile ground for a Gary Johnson opportunity here.
The latest presidential poll in New Mexico surveyed by Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal suggests the Land of Enchantment may be prime for the “perfect storm” scenario many Independents, Liberty activists, Johnson campaigners have intuitively suspected for months: Gary could win a state he’s won twice before (Disclosure: I am currently New Mexico Field Director for Johnson Weld). In a four way race, Clinton recieved 35% over Trump’s 31% of support. Johnson recieved 24% and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has nominal support at 2%. It should also be noted that the Washington Post had Johnson at 25% a month ago in New Mexico so it seems he’s at least holding his position.
Another highlight worth noting is Johnson’s towering support from Independent, non-affiliated voters at 42% over Clinton’s 26%, Trump’s 14%, and Stein’s 6%. This is significant because independent voters have often been known to be election king makers in close races. New Mexico looks like it may indeed be just that. Only 36 more days…
[Update] The Journal Poll has caught the eye of the professional data junkies back East. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com is a reputable political data journalist. The hyper partisans usually pay attention to what he writes. My own ears perked up when a friend in Washington DC sent me the latest election update from Silver. He points out a Johnson victory in New Mexico is actually possible and could wreak havoc on Clinton and Trump’s potential electoral college victory. This notion has energized many Johnson supporters here in the Land of Enchantment. If New Mexicans chose Johnson, Clinton and Trump could fall short of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the Presidency. In this scenario the House of Representatives lead by Paul Ryan and the GOP will then decide who ascends to the executive. As a successful two term Republican Governor from a Democrat state, this is Johnson’s clearest path to making America Sane Again. Read more here.