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Clinton Apathy Gives Trump the Win & NM House Goes Blue

Clinton Apathy Gives Trump the Win & NM House Goes Blue

Albuquerque – From the moment Ohio was called for Trump on Tuesday night I knew something was up. Could Trump really pull off the biggest upset in modern political history? No Republican has ever become President without winning Ohio, so Trump’s path to victory had just survived a major hurdle.

I continued to watch the numbers come in at the Albuquerque Convention Center. Trump had no path to the White House without Florida, so when the Sunshine State was called for Trump I realized the historic upset was not only possible but now highly probable. Remember, the pre-election storyline in Florida was one of a surge in Hispanic turnout that would propel Clinton to victory. But it just wasn’t enough: Trump’s margins were large enough that it didn’t matter that Clinton won Miami-Dade (Florida’s largest county) by a slightly bigger margin than Barack Obama did in 2012.

So what happened? While it’s a little early to tell, it is clear at least two major factors led to Hillary’s demise. First, Democrats lost white working-class voters big time. Trump’s 40 point margin with white working-class voters is the largest in exit polls since 1980 and exceeds Ronald Reagan’s 32 point win in the same group when he was reelected in 1984. Whatever gains she made among well-educated and Hispanic voters nationwide was not enough to overcome Trump’s huge appeal to white voters without a degree.

Trump’s 40 point margin with white working-class voters is the largest in exit polls since 1980 and exceeds Ronald Reagan’s 32 point win in the same group when he was reelected in 1984.

Second, when it came to turnout Democrats stayed home. According to the AP, 7.5 million more people voted in the last Presidential election four years ago. In all, Donald Trump won by receiving about 1.74 million fewer votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

In New Mexico, we joined Colorado as one of two Southwest states voting for Hillary (so much for my bellwether prediction). Down ballot Democrats in New Mexico had plenty to celebrate. Maggie Toulouse Oliver won the race for Secretary of State and pending three recounts the Democrats will have a 38-32 majority in the House making Minority Leader Brian Egolf likely the next Speaker. Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez’s defeat was noteworthy, but it remains to be seen what impact it will have on legislation coming out of the New Mexico Senate given that his replacement could be ideologically left of Sanchez. I have heard some Republicans grumble about the decision to commit such significant resources into a race that won’t have a positive impact on the legislation coming out of Santa Fe.

Looking forward to the 2017 Legislative Session, both sides will have to make some tough decisions in order to solve a budget deficit of around half a billion dollars. In a hyper-partisan environment where compromise is a dirty word and with a Legislature that is already starting to look past Governor Martinez, it isn’t going to be pretty. Brace yourselves, winter is coming.